Pemodelan Data Kecelakaan pada Perlintasan Sebidang Kereta Api DAOP VII Madiun

Authors

  • Septiana Widi Astuti Politeknik Perkeretaapian Indonesia Madiun
  • Puspita Dewi Politeknik Perkeretaapian Indonesia Madiun
  • Windi Nopriyanto Politeknik Perkeretaapian Indonesia Madiun
  • Ahmad Ependi Politeknik Perkeretaapian Indonesia Madiun
  • Ilham Satrio Utomo Politeknik Perkeretaapian Indonesia Madiun

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54324/j.mtl.v1i1.1351

Keywords:

level crossing, Poisson regression model, Negative Binomial regression

Abstract

The study aims to find the most suitable regression model of railroad level crossings accident data to obtain factors significantly affect the number of fatalities in DAOP VII Madiun. The variables used were road width, right slope, left slope, train frequency, type of crossing, large kilometer angle of view, small kilometer angle of view, Early Warning System, road status, type of crossing gates, left and right caution sign, and rumble band markings. The study used comparing method between the results of the Poisson regression model and the Negative Binomial regression model. It is found that the Negative Binomial regression model has a smaller Akaike Information Criteria and Root Mean Square Error than the Poisson model. It can be concluded that the Negative Binomial regression model is a better choice in modeling accident data in DAOP VII Madiun level crossing. Based on the modeling result, the factors significantly affect the number of fatalities in level crossings accident are road width, road status, type of crossing gate, and the presence or absence of caution signs.

References

Abioye, O. F., Dulebenets, M. A., Pasha, J., Kavoosi, M., Moses, R., Sobanjo, J., & Ozguven, E. E. (2020). Accident and hazard prediction models for highway–rail grade crossings: a state-of-the-practice review for the USA. Railway Engineering Science, 28(3), 251–274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-020-00215-w

Austin, R. D., & Carson, J. L. (2002). An alternative accident prediction model for highway-rail interfaces. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 34(1), 31–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0001-4575(00)00100-7

Borsos, A., Gabor, M., & Koren, C. (2016). Safety Ranking of Railway Crossings in Hungary. Transportation Research Procedia, 14, 2111–2120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.226

Doktor, P., & Sipil, T. (2014). PADA PERLINTASAN SEBIDANG DI JAWA TIMUR DISERTASI Oleh : MINAT : TRANSPORTASI.

Gomes Correia, A., & Ramos, A. (2022). A geomechanics classification for the rating of railroad subgrade performance. Railway Engineering Science, 30(3), 323–359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-021-00260-z

Kasalica, S., Obradović, M., Blagojević, A., Jeremić, D., & Vuković, M. (2020). Models for ranking railway crossings for safety improvement. Operational Research in Engineering Sciences: Theory and Applications, 3(3), 84–100. https://doi.org/10.31181/oresta20303085k

Keramati, A., Lu, P., Tolliver, D., & Wang, X. (2020). Geometric effect analysis of highway-rail grade crossing safety performance. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 138(October 2019), 105470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105470

Kismiantini. (2008). Perbandingan Model Regresi Poisson Dan Model Regresi Binomial Negatif. 1–8.

Lu, P., Tolliver, D., Zheng, Z., Consortium, M.-P., Institute, U. G. P. T., & Technology, O. of the A. S. for R. and. (2018). Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Traffic Hazard Forecasting Model. 37p.

Putro, B., Tanzil Furqon, M., & Wijoyo, S. H. (2018). Prediksi Jumlah Kebutuhan Pemakaian Air Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus : PDAM Kota Malang). Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi Dan Ilmu Komputer, 2(11), 4679–4686.

Rakhmat, L. A., Kusumawati, A., Frazila, R. B., & Hendarto, S. (2012). Pengembangan Model Prediksi Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas pada Jalan Tol Purbaleunyi. Jurnal Teknik Sipil, 19(3), 277. https://doi.org/10.5614/jts.2012.19.3.8

Ruliana, R., Hendikawati, P., & Agoestanto, A. (2016). Pemodelan Generalized Poisson Regression (GPR) Untuk Mengatasi Pelanggaran Equidispersi Pada Regresi Poisson Kasus Campak Di Kota Semarang Tahun 2013. UNNES Journal of Mathematics, 5(1), 39–46. http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/ujm

Downloads

Published

2024-04-14

Issue

Vol. 11 No. 1 (2024): Maret

Section

Articles

License

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).